Gold retreats after being not able to interrupt above $1250

Gold off highs amid a recuperation of america dollar and despite a poor in tone in Wall Street.
Price tested the $1250/oz.Location but once more failed to interrupt higher.
Gold is trading at $1,247/oz., practically flat for the day. Hours ago reached the very best degree in a week at $1,250.20. The area around the vital $1,250 level capped the upside and charge retreated. It observed aid at $1,245.

The move far from the highs took place amid a recovery of the greenback across the board. The greenback stays in terrible territory against most of its opponents however trimmed losses substantially.

The Federal Reserve commenced today it is 2-day meeting. A 25 bp charge hike is predicted to be introduced day after today. However, attention will possibly recognition on the FOMC projections that might have a sizeable impact at the US dollar.

XAU/USD Levels to observe

To the upside, if gold rises and holds on top fo $1,250 it can point to further gains. The subsequent resistance levels might lie at $1,254 and $1,261. On the turn side, helps can be visible at  $1,244 (every day low), $1,240 and $1,235 (20-day shifting average).

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GBP/USD in consciousness: Brexit/Fed variables retaining traders on their feet and making for volatility into year-give up

GBP/USD's enhance stalled on Monday in London, tumbling from the highs of one.2701 and proper returned to 1.2636 where the 21 and 2 hundred-hr SMAs meet at 1.2636.
Cable's trajectory is depending on Brexit headlines and the mood surrounding the outlook for the Federal Reserve's, (Fed), course of action with respect to its hobby rate policy.
The US dollar has been inside the stability of whether or not the Fed may be making policy even greater records dependent and whether or not we will see a decline in the 2019 median dot to 2 hikes from three. The Fed is anticipated to elevate the goal range for Fed budget to two.25%-2.50%.

Riksbank Preview: Rates going up in December? - ING
FOMC: Policy probably to be even more statistics based - TDS
Then, with admire to Brexit,  after winning a no-self assurance vote in her own birthday celebration, Theresa May did now not win any concessions at the EU leaders’ summit that she will take domestic to soothe her cupboard and parliament ahead of 'the significant vote'. Instead, her Brexit deal is facing strong competition with the aid of both the public, a few members of her cabinet and UK parliament. In her address the day past within the House of Commons, Prime Minister Theresa May said the parliamentary debate on Brexit deal will start inside the first week of January with the meaningful vote beginning January 14th.

UK PM May's spokesman: Citizens must prepare for no deal Brexit
Meanwhile, the pound is below stress because of the need to ramp up no-deal preparations. A UK May spokesperson stated in advance that the Cabinet agreed to set in motion the last factors of the no deal arrangements.


Key statements:


"Government will advocate enterprise now enact there no deal plans as a decide necessary; Citizens have to also prepare for no deal Brexit;
Leaving with a deal remains usually probably state of affairs;
There are a number of portions of regulation could need to pass through parliament to be ready for no deal."

Other than that, the sentiment surrounding a 2nd Brexit referendum is mounting that's sterling high quality considering the latest polls that propose people might now vote to remain. Another high-quality aspect, depending on what facet of the fence you are on,  that would play out for sterling before all of us head into Christmas and the Commons movements into recess till Jan. 7th might be if the chief of the opposition celebration, Jeremy Corbyn, pushes for a no-confidence vote in the government which can ultimately equate to needs for a 2d Brexit referendum.

GBP/USD tiers

The marketplace stays beneath pressure whilst underneath the 21 D SMA positioned at 1.2724. In the on the spot destiny, the pair struggles to hold above the 23.6% Fibo and is capped by the late Oct double backside lows. All 3 guidelines here offer a robust confluence and resistance degree which opens chance to a test of S1 located at 1.2578 and perhaps even 1.25 the discern in the imminent classes whilst factoring inside the probable quit of month flows and volatility in skinny vacation markets. 

"Below 1.2477 objectives the 78.6% retracement at 1.2109. Above the 20 day ma lies the 1.2840 contemporary December excessive however even as capped via the resistance line at 1.2933 it'll remain presented,"

analysts at Commerzbank argued.

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EUR / USD cai para a sessão baixa, abaixo de 1.1300s no turno dovish de Draghi

ECB’s downward revision of growth/inflation forecasts prompts a few selling.
   •  Draghi turns dovish and stated that the stability of danger is transferring to the disadvantage.

As the publish-ECB meeting press convention were given underway, the EUR/USD pair met with a few clean supply and has now drifted into negative territory.

The shared foreign money started out losing ground after the ECB President Mario Draghi stated that the incoming inflation records has been weaker than predicted and huge economic coverage stimulus continues to be required.

Draghi turned into in addition cited saying that the ultra-modern statistics suggests slower increase momentum and the stability of risk is transferring to the downside, ensuing in a downward revision of 2018/19 increase and inflation forecasts.

The important financial institution reduced its growth projections for 2018 to 1.9% vs +2.Zero% previous and 1.7% for 2019 vs +1.Eight% previous. Meanwhile, the every year inflation price for 2018 turned into revised better to 1.Eight% from 1.7% previous but turned into largely offset by a weaker outlook for 2019, now seen at 1.6% vs. 1.7% prior.

The pair speedy misplaced around forty-pips and slipped underneath mid-1.1300s in a knee-jerk reaction to the dovish outlook, even though disadvantage remains constrained amid the today's optimism over Italian price range compromise.

Technical ranges to observe


EUR/USD

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1346
    Today Daily trade: -25 pips
    Today Daily change %: -zero.220%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1371
Trends:
    Previous Daily SMA20: 1.1364
    Previous Daily SMA50: 1.1407
    Previous Daily SMA100: 1.1504
    Previous Daily SMA200: 1.1728
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1388
    Previous Daily Low: 1.1314
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1424
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1311
    Previous Monthly High: 1.15
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1216
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.136
    Previous Daily Fibonacci sixty one.Eight%: 1.1342
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1328
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1285
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1255
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1401
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1431
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1474

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Gold riding dollar weak spot beforehand of UK PM May's 'no confidence' vote

Gold is currently trading at $1246.40 with a latest high scored of $124.Ninety six, hiking from a low of $1242 following an unchanged CPI print for November.
US dollar pierces the ninety seven take care of to the disadvantage, being stripped of some speculators bids on profit-taking.
Gold expenses are better on Wednesday as the dollar contunes to present again floor following a less than supportive launch of CPI for November in which Core CPI, which strips out unstable meals and electricity prices, rose 0.2%, got here in line with expectations.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve may be much less aggressive in hiking hobby charges next yr and concerns over the U.S. Monetary outlook, (the improvement of an inverted yield curve inside the U.S. In all likelihood draws renewed investor hobby in gold), is helping to underpin the metallic and weighs at the greenback. Markets also are fixated on Brexit whereby markets await the results of PM May's leadership mission vote thatis set to start at 1800 GMT and set to go through to 2000 GMT -The result is probably to be introduced around 2100 GMT.

Brexit vote of self assurance hints, (Standard Chartered Bank):

On balance, Prime Minister Theresa May is probably to win these days’s vote of confidence.
If she does no longer win, a Conservative party management venture will take location.
It is unclear who will stand for the management, however each hard- and gentle-Brexit MPs are in all likelihood to run.
All situations continue to be at the desk, inclusive of a standard election, a second referendum and no deal.
Gold stages

Gold prices are barely better and hold above the 38.2% fibo with the 50% Fibo at the bull's map at 1262, simply above the two hundred-D SMA this is discovered at 1258. On the manner there, R2 is at 1255. On a destroy of this confluence, the 61.Eight% Fibo may be observed at 1286.

Support levels: 1239 1236 1231 
Resistance tiers: 1248 1253 1256

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WTI upside tries pressured by means of 21-D SMA

WTI is currently buying and selling at $fifty two.39 inside various $51.66 and $fifty three.03 and correcting lower as bearish pressure emerges within the Noth American session.

WTI started out out at the the front foot on Wednesday on improved sentiment surrounding Sino/US alternate members of the family. U.S. President Donald Trump said he’s at the cusp of intervening in a developing crisis over a Chinese telecommunications executive if it may help maintain a change deal on course, in line with an interview Reuters.

At the same time, the U.S. Authorities stated domestic crude components declined for a second week in a row, and the Energy Information Administration said early Wednesday that U.S. Crude substances fell with the aid of 1.2 million barrels for the week ended Dec. Seventh. OPEC had additionally said an 11,000 barrel-a-day decline in crude output remaining month, to common 32.97 million barrels a day. However, Saudi output become recorded at a record 11.01 million barrels a day.

Elsewhere, the deliver outage in Libya has also been a supportive issue with the u . S .’s country wide oil organization putting forward force majeure on exports from the El Sharara oilfield following an assault through a armed forces group over the weekend. Roughly four hundred,000 barrels an afternoon of oil have come offline, in keeping with analysts.

WTI levels

Price movement is indecisive at the same time as the each day & weekly RSI remains above 30. The charge is capped below the 21-D SMA through R1 within the bearish channel.The 123.6% Fibo extension goal is available in at the 43.90s while the June 2009 lows are close by at 41.83. Further out, the 161.18% Fibo extension goal is located at 33.Seventy seven, and the Jan 2016 low is down at 26.03.

Support stages: 51.Ninety 51.221 50.20

Resistance tiers: fifty two.Ninety two fifty three.60 54.62

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Bank of Canada: A lot much less hawkish announcement - NBF

The Bank of Canada (BoC) left interest fee unchanged at 1.75%, as expected. According to National Bank of Canada’s analysts, Krishen Rangasamy and Paul-André Pinsonnault, the critical financial institution grew to become more cautions amid loss of economic momentum.

Key Quotes:

“The Bank of Canada statement became much less hawkish than the only launched closing October. That became anticipated in light of the deterioration inside the global monetary picture and slumping commodity fees. However, the BoC’s declaration was silent approximately market volatility and as a substitute centered on economic basics.”

“It appears the Bank is likewise less assured approximately the financial outlook. It certainly added the oil rate surprise, the evolution of commercial enterprise funding, and the assessment of the output gap (slack) to the listing of things that could determine the pace of coverage normalization.”

“The BoC appears to be thinking about downgrading its 2019 Canadian GDP growth forecast in the approaching Monetary Policy Report. So, whilst the primary bank did no longer entirely close the door to a January price hike, odds of this type of hike being added have, in our view, dropped inside the low 50% (as compared to market estimates of  greater than 80% again in early November).”

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Gold stays below $1240 as trading quantity thins out

US Dollar Index returns to 97 region after advancing to 97.20.
Gold looks to snap 2-day triumphing streak.
After gaining a total of $17 on Monday and Tuesday, the XAU/USD pair staged a technical correction nowadays and retreated to $1233 inside the day before recuperating a huge portion of its daily losses. As of writing, the pair turned into trading at $1238, losing handiest 50 cents on a each day foundation.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion in advance this week, that's taken as an early indicator of an economic slowdown, precipitated a flight-to-safety and allowed conventional secure havens which includes the treasured steel gather electricity against its opponents whilst weighing heavily at the inventory markets. With the U.S. Markets staying closed on Wednesday, the pair found an possibility to consolidate its latest profits. However, amid a lack of signs suggesting a shift within the market mood, the pair's losses stayed restrained.

Meanwhile, america Dollar Index, which superior to a each day excessive at 97.20, retreated to the ninety seven location and commenced to transport sideways close to that level reflecting the subdued market movement.

On Thursday, the facts from the U.S., the ADP non-public zone employment, 1/3-region nonfarm productiveness, exchange stability, and weekly jobless claims, might be seemed upon for sparkling impetus. Additionally, investors will be paying a near interest to the bond market.

Technical tiers to recall

The first crucial resistance for the pair aligns at $1243 (200-DMA) ahead of $1248 (Jul. 12 excessive) and $1260 (Jul. 10 excessive). On the drawback, supports are placed at $1233 (daily low), $1226 (Nov. 5 low) and $1222 (50-DMA).

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Intraday bullish move faces rejection near 100-hour SMA

The combine's intraday positive force confronted dismissal close to 100-hour SMA, however bulls have figured out how to stick to humble day by day increases simply above mid-1.1300s. 

• Technical markers on 4-hourly/every day outlines haven't possessed the capacity to increase any positive footing and have just begun losing positive force on the 1-hourly diagram. 

• However, the ongoing value activity between two uniting pattern lines, in the course of the last multi week or something like that, established towards the arrangement of a bullish falling wedge graph design. 

• Hence, it is judicious to sit tight for a persuading leap forward the referenced exchanging range before brokers begin situating for the combine's next leg of directional move.

EUR/USD 1-hourly chart

EUR/USD

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1366
    Today Daily change: 36 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.318%
    Today Daily Open: 1.133
Trends:
    Previous Daily SMA20: 1.1366
    Previous Daily SMA50: 1.1488
    Previous Daily SMA100: 1.1548
    Previous Daily SMA200: 1.1791
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1422
    Previous Daily Low: 1.1328
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1473
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1328
    Previous Monthly High: 1.1625
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1364
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1386
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1298
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1266
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1204
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1392
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1454
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1487

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USD/JPY Forecast: Happy days are back, the downtrend is dead, long live the uptrend

USD/JPY is exchanging above 113.00 indeed as a few positive advancements enhance the temperament. The day after Thanksgiving deals were supposedly fruitful both on the web and in block and 

1. Specialized Overview 

On its way up, USD/JPY broke above both the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages, an impressive bullish sign. Also, we see that Momentum is sure and that the match is exchanging close by an uptrend channel. 

113.25 topped the match before the end of last week and stays of significance. Further up, 113.75 held USD/JPY down in mid-November and is a considerable opposition line. 113.00 is a round number and furthermore held the match down before in November. 114.25 was the high point in November. 

Looking down beneath the two SMA's, 112.80 worked in the two bearings as of late. It corresponds with uptrend bolster at the season of composing. Next, down the line, we find 112.30 that was the trough before the end of last week. 111.80 was a swing low in late October and fills in as a pad beneath 112. 

2. Principal Overview 

Americans' shopping binges enhance the disposition on Wall Street in front of the open and send prospects higher. USD/JPY is all around related with the gyrations of value advertises and reacts decidedly. 

In the old landmass, the European Commission's remain off with Italy over the financial backing is seeing somewhat of a descend, particularly from Italy. The two alliance parties have flagged a will to consult with Brussels and check the deficiency. The news for the most part influences the Euro yet in addition decreased interest from the place of refuge yen. 

Likewise in Brussels, EU pioneers endorsed the Brexit bargain. While the UK government will even now battle to pass it in Parliament, this is one stage forward towards a goals. The news is additionally steady of hazard taking and debilitates the yen. 

Markets as of now overlook other geopolitical dangers. Russia and Ukraine conflicted over Crimea by and by, reminding the world that the emergency stays uncertain. Russia seized three Ukrainian vessels and barred the Kerch Straight. Ukraine said it was a demonstration of war. The circumstance currently appears to be contained, however stays unpredictable. 

Closer to Japan, talks between North Korea and the US have slowed down even as the two sides are endeavoring to arrange another Summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean pioneer Kim Jong-un. 

Trump has a more critical experience this week, with President Xi Jinping of China, where exchange beat the plan. Features on the exchange war front could move the match as ahead of schedule as today. 

All things considered, markets are seeing the glass half-full and this helps the USD/JPY match move higher.

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Tory-DUP deal over unless PM May replaced - UK's Daily Telegraph

According to unverified reporting by the UK's Daily Telegraph, the UK's ruling Conservative party's coalition deal with Northern Ireland's DUP could be axed unless the Tories call for a no-confidence vote in PM Theresa May and install a new UK leader with more hard-line Brexit tendencies.

according to the Daily Telegraph, whose sources currently remain largely unverified, the DUP would automatically vote down any withdrawal agreement tabled by PM May regardless of content, and the DUP is alleged to be playing hardball with the UK Tories, demanding a new UK leader.

Theresa May's latest draft proposal has seen another round of ship-jumpers from within her own government, with Dominic Raab resigning as Brexit minister and Esther Mcvey vacating her seat as the work and pensions minister, leaving the prime minister further isolated within her own government, and key Tories within the UK government have allegedly already delivered letters recommending a no-confidence vote in PM May's government.

The GBP/USD is unmoved in early Friday action as broader markets await more significant confirmations beyond the rumours.

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AUD/USD ensnared just shy of 0.7300

• Friday looks set for tense action as the US reaffirms January step-up of China tariffs.
• A thin calendar leaves the Aussie exposed to headline-driven flows.

The AUD/USD heads into Friday trading near 0.7275 after a rough Thursday session saw the Aussie get propped up by better-than-expected employment figures, then trade in rough whips just beneath the 0.7300 handle.

The Friday calendar is free and clear of any meaningful data for the Aussie, leaving Pacific-Asia session traders to grapple with trade war headlines, following recent announcements that the US, despite an apparent thawing in talks between them and China, still intends to jack up the tariff rate on Chinese goods to 25% beginning in January. The planned move will likely see trade rhetoric keep a sharp edge in the weeks leading up to the G20 summit at the end of this month, where US President Trump and China's Xi Jingping are slated for a sideline trade meeting.

AUD/USD levels to watch

Thanks to Friday's above-expectations reading of Australian Unemployment, the AUD is leaning into a bullish technical stance according to FXstreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "from a technical point of view an in the short term, the pair is bullish, as in the 4 hours chart, the pair continues developing above a firmly bullish 20 SMA, which advances above the larger ones, while technical indicatorshold well into positive ground, lacking directional strength at the time being. The high for this month is 0.7302, while September one comes at 0.7314, the level to surpass to trigger a bullish continuation up to 0.7360,  where the pair has multiple daily highs and lows from early this year."

Support levels: 0.7235 0.7200 0.7165   

Resistance levels: 0.7315 0.7360 0.7400

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro finds short-term support at 1.1240 as the London session comes to an end

• UR/USD is trading in a bear trend below the 200-period simple moving average.
• EUR/USD broke below the key 1.1300 figure earlier in the day. The main bias keeps a bearish bias as the RSI and Stochastic indicators are in oversold condition while the MACD is negative.
• EUR/USD has found some short-term support near 1.1240 as the London session came to an end.  All suggesting that a test of 1.1300 can be on the cards.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Main trend:             Bearish

Resistance 1:   1.1300 figure
Resistance 2:   1.1350 figure
Resistance 3:   1.1400 figure
Resistance 4:   1.1430 October 9 low
Resistance 5:   1.1470 Asian high (Nov.7) 

Support 1:   1.1240 current November 12 low
Support 2:   1.1200 figure
Support 3:   1.1104 June 6, 2017 low

Additional key levels at a glance:

EUR/USD

Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1255
    Daily change: -83 pips
    Daily change: -0.732%
    Daily Open: 1.1338
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1426
    Daily SMA50: 1.154
    Daily SMA100: 1.1579
    Daily SMA200: 1.1842
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1369
    Daily Low: 1.1316
    Weekly High: 1.15
    Weekly Low: 1.1316
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1337
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1349
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1313
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1288
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.126
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1366
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1394
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1419

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ECB: pushing back our forecast for the first ECB rate hike - ABN Amro

Analysts at ABN Amro explained that they have pushed back our forecast for the first ECB rate hike.

Key Quotes:

"We have changed our forecast for the first ECB rate hike to March 2020 from December 2019 previously. We expect a 10bp rate hike in March 2020 and a second one in September 2020 (with all policy rates moving in synch). The main factor behind the change is the deterioration in the economic outlook."

"Recent economic data have been weak and the  environment for eurozone exports will remain challenging given slowing growth in emerging markets."

"In addition, the US economy is likely to slow, especially in the second half of next year. Weaker export growth will also hamper investment. Although Q3 economic growth was likely depressed by transient effects in the car industry, we think the slowdown also reflects a broader trend. So in our view, the ECB will lower its economic projections."

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Gold falls to new monthly lows near $1207 as US Dollar Index rises above 97

• Broad-based USD strength weighs on XAU/USD on Friday.
• US Dollar Index extends rally to fresh weekly high above 97.
• Precious metal looks to close the week more than $25 lower.

The XAU/USD came under a heavy selling pressure in the NA session and fell to its lowest level since October 11 at $1206.83. As of writing, the troy ounce of the precious metal was trading at $1208.70, losing nearly $15, or 1.2%, on a daily basis.

The pair's recent drop seems to be a product of a strengthening greenback. The US Dollar Index, which recorded losses earlier in the week with the initial market reaction to the results of the midterm elections in the U.S., reversed its course on Thursday following the Fed's monetary policy announcements and preserved its momentum on Friday. With major European currencies such as the euro and the pound weakening sharply against the buck, the index reached its highest level in a week at 97.01 and was last seen at 96.98, adding 0.35 on the day.

Earlier today, the data from the U.S. showed that the PPI rose 0.6% and 2.9% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively, to beat the experts' estimates. Additionally, the Uom's consumer confidence index came in at 98.3 compared to the market expectation of 98. "Income expectations have improved and consumers anticipate continued robust growth in employment, but consumers also anticipate rising inflation and higher interest rates," the UoM said in its publication.

Technical levels to consider

Supports for the pair are located at $1200 (psychological level), $1195 (Oct. 3 low) and $1188 (Oct. 2 low). On the upside, the initial resistance aligns at $1212 (50-DMA) ahead of $1223 (daily high) and $1236 (Nov. 7 high).

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EUR/USD still under pressure around 1.1340

• The pair remains on the defensive around 1.1340.
• The greenback keeps the bid tone unchanged near 96.80.
• US Producer Prices rose 0.6% MoM in October.

The selling sentiment keeps dominating the European currency at the end of the week, keeping EUR/USD under pressure in the 1.1340 region.

EUR/USD vulnerable on Italy, Brexit

Once again, the pair is suffering the absence of serious progress in the UK-EU negotiations on Brexit, while jitters on the Italian political scenario and their impact on yields have been also adding to the bearish stance on spot in the last couple of sessions.

The pair has been also under pressure following yesterday’s FOMC meeting. Despite the Fed left its monetary policy unchanged, the Committee is expected to raise rates at the December meeting.

On the docket, US Producer Prices surprised to the upside in October, rising at a monthly 0.6% and 2.9% in their headline version, while Core prices followed suit, up 0.5% MoM and 2.6% over the last twelve months.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is down 0.10% at 1.1353 and a break below 1.1328 (low Nov.9) would target 1.1313 (200-week SMA) en route to 1.1299 (YTD low Aug.15). On the upside, the next hurdle is located at 1.1500 (high Nov.7) seconded by 1.1508 (low May 29) and finally 1.1550 (high Oct.22).

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ECB: Unchanged rates and reinvestments will last even longer - ABN

Nick Kounis, Senior Economist at ABN Maro noted that the ECB is focusing on the forward guidance on interest rates and reinvestments to provide continued stimulus. 

Key Quotes:

"We continue to think that the ECB will downgrade its economic outlook in the coming months and will therefore change its tone. However, this has implications for the other tools at its disposal rather than net asset purchases."

"Indeed, the ECB President continued to signal that ‘significant monetary stimulus will still be needed’ and that ‘even after we end our net asset purchases, monetary stimulus will continue to be provided by the guidance we have given namely that we expect to keep interest rates at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019 and to maintain the stock of assets on our balance sheet by reinvesting maturing bonds purchased under the asset purchase programme for an extended period of time after the end of our net asset purchases’."

"Indeed, we found it noteworthy that Mr Draghi asserted that the ECB’s forward guidance can change if the economic outlook worsens."

"Indeed, a downgrade of the ECB’s growth forecasts over coming months could well trigger the ECB to signal that the period of unchanged rates and reinvestments will last even longer. "

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro holding above 1.1400 ahead of the FOMC

• EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart ahead of the FOMC this Thursday at 19.00 GMT.
• EUR/USD has been advancing in the last 5 days of trading and has currently found support above 1.1400 and the 50 SMA. The RSI is neutral, the MACD has a bearish crossover and the Stochastic is in negative territories. 
• In order to reclaim some ground, bulls will need to overcome the 1.1430 resistance. A break of the level can lead to an acceleration to 1.1450 and 1.1470, Asian high (Nov.7). Alternatively, a break below 1.1400 can lead to a drop to 1.1350 and 1.1300 levels. 

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Main trend:             Bearish

Resistance 1:   1.1430 October 9 low
Resistance 2:   1.1470 Asian high (Nov.7) 
Resistance 3:   1.1500 figure and October 2 swing low 
Resistance 4:   1.1530 August 23 swing low (key level)
Resistance 5:   1.1600 figure

Support 1:   1.1400 figure
Support 2:   1.1350 figure
Support 3:   1.1300 current 2018 low

Additional key levels at a glance:

EUR/USD

Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1427
    Daily change: -12 pips
    Daily change: -0.105%
    Daily Open: 1.1439
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1449
    Daily SMA50: 1.1552
    Daily SMA100: 1.1584
    Daily SMA200: 1.1852
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.15
    Daily Low: 1.1395
    Weekly High: 1.1456
    Weekly Low: 1.1302
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.146
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1435
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1389
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1339
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1284
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1495
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.155
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.16

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USD/JPY: Greenback bulls parked below 113.55 resistance ahead of the US mid-term elections

• The mid-term elections in the US should steal the show in the Asian sesssion.
• USD/JPY contained in a tiny range below 113.55 resistance ahead of the event.

USD/JPY is trading up 0.13% near the 113.55 resistance this Tuesday. Bulls have been trying to break this level since late October but so far all attempts have failed.

The currency pair is evolving in a 35-pip range ahead of the US mid-rem elections. The results should be revealed between midnight and 6:00 GMT. Recent polls suggest that Republicans might lose control of the House, which can keep the US Dollar under some relative pressure, therefore helping USD/JPY to potentially go down. 

On the macroeconomic front, earlier in the session the ISM services index rose to 60.3 in October versus 59.3 forecast in favor of the Greenback. 

The technical pictures remain predominantly neutral to bearish with 113.55 acting as strong resistance in the last weeks of trading. The 113.00 figure is the support to beat for bears. A break below that level can open the doors to 112.55 September 27 low. On the flip side, a break above 113.55 on a daily closing basis could lead to a bull leg to 114.00 figure and 114.57 October high. 

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Additional key levels at a glance:

USD/JPY

Overview:
    Last Price: 113.36
    Daily change: 14 pips
    Daily change: 0.124%
    Daily Open: 113.22
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 112.52
    Daily SMA50: 112.39
    Daily SMA100: 111.73
    Daily SMA200: 109.95
Levels:
    Daily High: 113.35
    Daily Low: 113.08
    Weekly High: 113.4
    Weekly Low: 111.78
    Monthly High: 114.56
    Monthly Low: 111.38
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 113.24
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 113.18
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 113.08
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 112.94
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 112.8
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 113.35
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 113.49
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 113.63

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EU’s Dombrovskis: Commission considering sanction procedure against Italy if budget does not change

European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that the Commission is considering sanction procedure against Italy if the budget does not change.

The shared currency reacted little to the latest headlines, with the EUR/USD pair holding comfortably above the 1.1400 handle.

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Key event risks ahead - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac noted the forthcoming events. 

Key Quotes:

"The RBA policy decision is due at 2:30pm Syd/11:30am Sing/HK. It should provide only limited distraction ahead of the running of the Melbourne Cup 30 minutes later. The cash rate is firmly on hold at 1.5% for some time, with the October Board minutes repeating that, “there was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy.” The statement needs to acknowledge the low Q3 inflation data released between meetings but Friday’s quarterly statement is likely to produce unchanged forecasts. Indeed, today’s statement could well confirm that the key forecasts are little changed since August. We will also be looking for the language around the ongoing fall in house prices."

"The twice-monthly dairy auction takes place in London trade, with little change expected. There will also be plenty of commentary from ECB officials."

"In the US, we should see further confirmation of the tightness of the job market, with the Sep Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) due. The number of job vacancies has been trending firmly higher since 2009 but picked up pace this year."

"It is Election Day in the US. Midterm elections are held every four years, at the halfway point between presidential elections. All 435 seats in the House and 35 of 100 Senate seats face re-election, along with many state governorships. Markets should be braced for a divided Congress (Republicans holding the Senate but Democrats taking control of the House) but US elections often produce surprises so global markets and AUD could be whippy around the results on Wednesday Sydney time."

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AUD / USD mantendo-se estável perto de 0.7200 após o rally do final da segunda-feira

• Apesar dos decepcionantes dados australianos de segunda-feira, a venda de dólares ajudou o AUD / USD a recuperar o nível chave de 0,7200.
• A última chamada de tarifa do RBA está prevista para a terça-feira.

O AUD / USD está sendo negociado perto da alavancagem de 0,7200 depois de pegar uma carona na atividade de venda do dólar nos mercados mais amplos durante a sessão de segunda-feira dos EUA, levando o Aussie de volta da consolidação recente perto de 0,7050.

O Aussie atingiu o pico na segunda-feira em 0.7258, mas foi incapaz de manter o nível sobrecarregado e se acomodar perto do maior nível de retração Fibo de 61.8% do par do declínio AUD / USD de setembro-outubro na familiar alavanca de 0.7200.

Terça-feira vê a mais recente declaração de taxa e taxa de juros do Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), mas com o banco central australiano firmemente entrincheirado com taxas de 1,5%, os comerciantes antipodeanos estarão focados nas perspectivas do RBA com foco crítico nas condições de emprego e salários como a economia australiana continua a cavar-se de crescimento lento.

A terça-feira também verá tensões em alta na esfera dos EUA, com uma iminente eleição para o meio do mandato dos EUA, que deve levar as principais regiões votantes dos Estados Unidos para longe do atual partido republicano, já que uma parcela crescente da população americana está aumentando. insatisfeito com as políticas e táticas do presidente Donald Trump.

Níveis AUD / USD para assistir

 O par Aussie-Dollar poderia estar se preparando para uma corrida continuada, segundo Valeria Bednarik, da FXStreet : "os dois passaram o dia pairando em torno do retrocesso de 61,8% de sua queda de setembro / outubro, encontrando vendedores na região de 0,7180, mas incapaz de avançar além de 0,7215, o gráfico de 4 horas mostra que o 20 SMA ampliou seu avanço, mantendo a sua inclinação de alta sobre os maiores, o que inclina o risco para o lado positivo.a falta de progresso faz com que o indicador Momentum recue no meio da linha, mas o indicador RSI mantém uma leve inclinação de alta, atualmente em 64, este último, também apoiando o caso otimista. "

Níveis de apoio: 0,7165 0,7120 0,7080  

Níveis de resistência: 0,7215 0,7250 0,7290

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US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY bulls regain some ground after Thursday’s selloff

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a bull trend above the 200-day simple moving average. 
• DXY regained some of the ground lost on Thursday. Bulls would ideally need to recapture 97.20 (current 2018 high) in order to resume the bull trend.
• The RSI and Stochastic indicators are weakening suggesting bulls would need to break above 97.20 quickly if they do not want the bears to take over.

DXY daily chart

Trend:                     Bullish

Resistance 1:         97.20 current 2018 high
Resistance 2:         97.87 June 20, 2017
Resistance 3:         98.00 figure

Support 1:               97.00 former 2018 high
Support 2:               96.41 August 20 high
Support 3:               96.00 figure
Support 4:               95.65 multi-month resistance (key level)
Support 5:               95.52 August 6 high
Support 6:               95.24 July 13 high

Additional key levels at a glance:

Dollar Index Spot

Overview:
    Last Price: 96.5
    Daily change: 19 pips
    Daily change: 0.197%
    Daily Open: 96.31
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 95.94
    Daily SMA50: 95.32
    Daily SMA100: 95.17
    Daily SMA200: 93.14
Levels:
    Daily High: 97.1
    Daily Low: 96.2
    Weekly High: 96.86
    Weekly Low: 95.47
    Monthly High: 97.2
    Monthly Low: 94.79
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.54
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 96.76
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 95.97
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 95.64
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 95.07
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 96.87
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 97.44
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 97.77

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NZ: Consumer confidence slips to below-average levels in October - ANZ

Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist at ANZ, points out that the New Zealand’s consumer confidence is gradually declining due to increased wariness about what the future may bring, according to the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index.

Key Quotes

“The overall index dipped 3 points, taking it under the historical average. The Current Conditions Index lifted 2 points to 122, but the Future Conditions Index fell 5 points to 111, the lowest level since September 2015.”

“Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situations dipped 1 point to a net 11% feeling financially better off than a year ago”

“House price inflation expectations dropped to 2.7% y/y, lower everywhere.”

“Inflation expectations lifted a tad from 3.4% to 3.5%, a pretty muted move in light of recent petrol price increases.”

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EUR/USD keeps highs around 1.1400 ahead of US ISM

• Spot climbs to 3-day tops in the 1.1400 neighbourhood.
• The greenback tumbles to lows near 96.40.
• US ISM Manufacturing next of relevance in the calendar.

EUR/USD is extending the upside momentum to the 1.1400 region so far on Thursday, clinching at the same time fresh 3-day peaks.

EUR/USD now focused on US data

The pair is recovering part of the recent sharp losses to the boundaries of 1.1300 the figure on Wednesday, always on the back of a strong selling sentiment hitting the greenback.

The better tone in the riskier assets remains propped up by rising optimism (wishful thinking?) over a potential Brexit deal at some point later in the month, as per recent comments by UK’s negotiator D.Raab.

Looking ahead, the buck should be in centre stage in light of the publication of the manufacturing gauge by the ISM. Earlier in the day, Initial Claims rose 214K WoW, Unit Labor Costs rose 1.2% QoQ in Q3 and Nonfarm Productivity expanded 2.2% QoQ during the same period.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is up 0.65% at 1.1386 facing the next hurdle at 1.1416 (high Nov.1) seconded by 1.1467 (21-day SMA) and finally 1.1550 (high Oct.22). On the other hand, a break below 1.1302 (low Oct.31) would target 1.1299 (2018 low Aug.15) en route to 1.1118 (monthly low Jun.20 2017).

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USD/JPY: holds the 113 handle in Tokyo ahead of Chinese PMIs

• USD/JPY remained firm on the 113 handle in the open of Tokyo's markets as we await key data at the top of the hour with Aussie CPI first up and then Chinese PMIs.
• USD/JPY has been continuing on its de-risking bid, up from yesterdays 112.30 lows in Tokyo.

 The DXY was also running on al cylinders and managed to score through the 97 handle in NY trade. This helped the pair along with the risk-off trade unwinding. As for rates, "The US 10yr treasury yield firmed slightly from 3.10% to 3.12%, the 2yr yield up from 2.83% to 2.84%. Fed fund futures yields priced the chance of another rate hike in December at 75%," analysts at Westpac explained.

US data solid

Meanwhile, from the data front, the US consumer confidence comes in at the best in 18 yrs. " US consumer confidence beat expectations in October, rising to yet another 18-year high. Both current and future conditions rose. The Dallas Fed Services PMI was more circumspect, falling in October. Six-month-ahead general business activity fell; employment and wages were generally stable; capital expenditures fell to 12.6 from 18.5," analysts at ANZ explained.

For the day ahead, the market will get a glimpse of how the Chinese economy is performing. "China’s official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys for Oct are due at12pm Syd/9am local. Consensus is for little change vs Sep at 50.6 and 54.6 respectively, though the lengthy holidays at the start of the month could produce some distortion," analysts at Westpac explained.

The Bank of Japan is fully expected to hold

"The Bank of Japan is fully expected to hold policy steady today (decision any time from 11:30am Tokyo/1:30pm Sydney) but there will be plenty of new information as the release includes the quarterly outlook on the economy and prices. The “around zero percent” yield target on the 10 year government bond seems likely to be maintained for many more meetings though newswire stories indicate a desire at the BoJ to alter the timing of its JGB purchases to try to stoke some life into the market which it dominates. There is no sign that the bank is brave enough to drop the commitment to purchase JPY80 trillion of JGBs per year even though it clearly does not need to buy so many in order to hit its 10yr yield target," analysts at Westpac explained.

USD/JPY levels

• Support levels: 112.60 112.35 111.95    
• Resistance levels: 113.00 113.40 113.85

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet notes that in the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator heads north in overbought readings:

"The RSI is flat at around 62, as the price bounced from a bullish 200 SMA multiple times in these last couple of sessions. The 100 SMA in the mentioned chart, maintains its bearish slope below the larger one. As long as bulls keep defending the 112.60 price zone, the pair is poised to extend its advance up to 113.40, September 8 daily high."

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