he dearth of currency market volatility in 2014 that sank to historic lows last summer appears to be consigned to history. Put simply, there are too many economic and geopolitical variables that erupted over the latter half of the year that ignited the FX market, and those themes will carry over into 2015.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to turn off the liquidity tap last October, and signals to the market it is preparing to embark upon the normalization of monetary policy next year, is one of the three primary drivers of market volatility.
Likewise with the Bank of England (BoE) when it eventually hikes its key interest rate after the Fed does. Truly sustainable market volatility requires the Group of Seven’s central banks to establish rate divergence. We appear to be on that path in light of the aforementioned Fed and BoE, and as the European Central Bank girds itself to dive headlong into quantitative easing if Germany can be convinced, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to print yen to prop up Japan’s tepid economy.
0 comentários:
Postar um comentário